FIRE MANAGEMENT

A new bonfire began to kindle in the darkness set over the Korean Peninsula following  the 2018 Winter Olympics. The one who started this fire is the enigmatic Leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un. The public speculates.

In wait, disregarding sleep. Speakers placed on the green lawn outside the White House.  The contents of the letter from Kim Jong-un to Trump revealed - “Ready to meet the President of the USA. Ready to discuss the issue of abolition of nuclear weapons”. It was also revealed that the President of the USA would meet with the Leader of the DPRK.

First of all, gratitude must be expressed to the young marshal Kim Jong-un. Nuclear-weapon-free Korean Peninsula will help the global peace. Yet, the road to peace on the Korean Peninsula would be more arduous than what many people envision. There are a number of critical issues pending solution here.

One: The signing of a Peace Treaty. The Korean War stopped upon only a Ceasefire Agreement. A peace treaty detailing peacetime relations that marked the end of the war has never been signed. This is the core issue of the security of the peninsula. This is how the generations of the Kim leaders viewed the matter. A peace treaty would in substance change the wartime status of the peninsula.

Two: Making the Korean Peninsula a nuclear weapon free zone. America and its allies would demand North Korea to disarm its nuclear weapons and abolish its nuclear weapons program. North Korea and its ally, on the other hand, would raise the issue of the American military presence and missiles in South Korea. In other words, this would be a demand to leave the Korean peninsula.

One simple conclusion can be drawn from this unfolding of the situation. Preparation for an impending war or actual realization of peace. This duality is the 2 sides of the coin called the Korean Peninsula. The faces minted on those 2 sides of this coin, Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un are leaders with clear-cut interests.

Un has already expressed his willingness to open up his card. Let’s assume he keeps his words. In this instance, the people of North Korea who in its entirety was mobilized for nuclear weapons would seek an answer to the question “why” from their young marshal. This state of affairs will eventually lead to Un conceding to Trump and Trump conceding to Un. They have dignity. And they will have to uphold their dignity. But, at what cost!

Furthermore, it is highly likely that North Korean leader would request financial and economic aid or collateral from America and its allies. They would in turn likely to raise the human rights issue in North Korea. This voice has already started being heard outside of and beyond the negotiation table. However this is a very sensitive and least interesting topic for Un.

In addition, there is one critical issue that Japan would raise. The issue surrounding the Japanese citizens said to be abducted by North Korean special forces whose fates are still unknown to this day. The Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China would surely not hold back from the negotiation table. In cases like these, our two neighbors always participate to represent their own agendas.

One other matter has also to be addressed. Kim Jong-un cannot be taken lightly as a cornered young individual at the helm. He has an experienced team that has had dealings with at least 10 American Presidents and their administrations, their policies, actions and conducts. They also have a strong backing from China.

There is a picture of a dream envision by Koreas that have been split into two poles, to be a united nation, one with nuclear weapons and the other with a high technology economy. However, Koreans themselves have the smallest number of people who believe that this dream will be fulfilled.

In the end, this meeting might not happen, even if it does happen, it would probably not meet the expectations of many. In which case, the precarious situation in the Korean peninsula would not change. The most troubling issue would be the heavy blow to the faith of the parties who have high expectations for the news. No matter how many times you stoke the ashes, a fire of hope cannot be reignited within the hearts of men and women.

In ancient times, Mongol soldiers have employed many strategies to showcase their superiority, gain advantages and consequently defeat their opponents. One strategy was remarked in the pages of history very clearly. It is lighting fires in the darkness of night. One soldier lights many fires. And fires as many as the stars in the night sky would be set aflame. This was done to instill the idea to their opponents that “Mongol soldiers are much more numerous and mightier than ours”.

Young Kim has ignited many fires since he became the Leader of DPRK. These fires have created certain impressions for many. He has since been taking steps to sustain these impressions. All that is left to do now is to observe how effective his fire management skills are.

Mongolyn Tsakhiagiin ELBEGDORJ

  President of Mongolia (2009-2017)